As of 13:00 on August 12, 2025, Beijing Time, the price of BTC has dropped by 853,360 from 58,000 yesterday. This decline is partly attributed to the latest interest rate hike decision of the Federal Reserve. On August 10, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates to 6.5%. Historical data shows that interest rate hike cycles usually lead to a decline in the returns of risky assets. For instance, after the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in 2024, the price of BTC dropped by 15% in a single month. Market concerns over inflationary pressure intensified the volatility. The US CPI data rose by 4.2% year-on-year in July, exceeding the expected 3.8%. According to Bloomberg statistics, Similar macroeconomic events such as the energy crisis in 2022 once caused the price of BTC to plumper by 30% within a month.
Regulatory risks have exacerbated market uncertainty. For instance, after the People’s Bank of China reaffirmed its ban on cryptocurrencies on August 11th, global exchanges reported a 25% decline in BTC trading volume. Referring to the 2024 US SEC enforcement case, Coinbase was fined 50 million US dollars for compliance issues. This led to a 12% drop in the BTC price within 48 hours at that time. On-chain data showed that under the regulatory shock, the frequency of abnormal on-chain transfer activities increased, with the daily transaction volume rising from an average of 250,000 to 320,000, which increased the selling pressure. According to Bitwise research, policy changes reduced the average investor return rate by 20%, affecting market sentiment.
Technical analysis indicates that the breakthrough of the support level is the direct factor. On the morning of August 12th, the BTC price fell below the key support level of $55,000, triggering a 150% surge in stop-loss orders. The hourly volatility index rose to 85, higher than the historical average of 50. Referring to similar technical events in 2023, when the BTC price breaks through the 50-day moving average, The amount of derivatives liquidation exceeded 300 million US dollars within a single day. This decline was accompanied by a 15% reduction in the open interest of futures across the entire network, and the exchange’s funding rate changed from positive 0.05% to negative 0.08%, indicating an increase in market bearish sentiment. CoinGlass data stated that similar signals are likely to extend the price repair cycle by five days.
On-chain indicators reflect the pressure on miner activity. After the halving event, the mining difficulty rose by 10%, the daily amount of BTC sold by miners increased by 8%, and the reduction in block rewards led to a 5% drop in the hash rate. According to the Glassnode report, miners’ income decreased by 15% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating the selling. For instance, the halving cycle in 2024 caused the median monthly price of BTC to drop by 10%. Currently, the average cost for all network holders is $42,000, which is lower than the current market value. This indicates that unrealized losses have increased by 35%, intensifying short-term volatility.
External events such as cybersecurity incidents have exacerbated the situation. For instance, on August 11th, a major exchange was attacked by hackers, resulting in a loss of approximately 50 million US dollars in assets. The panic index soared from 40 to 75, similar to the FTX collapse in 2024, which led to a liquidity crisis in the market, with 2 billion US dollars flowing out within a month. After this attack, the exchange’s reserve volume decreased by 8%, the market liquidity ratio dropped by 12%, and the risk model predicted that the short-term recovery probability was only 30%. Overall, this decline in btc price reminds investors to combine historical cycle data analysis to manage risks.